CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis
Latest ClaritX AI analysis ·
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen,
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $120.85 |
| Market cap | $18.3B |
| Sector | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Agricultural Inputs |
| ClaritX AI score | 86/100 |
| Price/Book | 3.23 |
| Dividend yield | 1.74% |
| Beta | 0.40 |
AI verdict
CF Industries presents a rare amalgamation of deep value, elite profitability, and structural growth within the basic materials sector. Trading at $120.85, the stock is currently positioned roughly 15% below its 52-week high of $141.96. This is a highly attractive entry point, allowing investors to acquire shares of a fundamentally dominant company without buying into euphoric, top-of-the-market exhaustion. The valuation metrics are undeniably cheap: an 8.94 P/E ratio, an EV/EBITDA of 4.67, and a staggering Forward PEG of 0.13. When these multiples are paired with a 40.4% Return on Equity and a 10.4% Free Cash Flow yield, it becomes evident that the market is severely underpricing CF’s core cash generation, let alone its massive long-term catalyst in the low-carbon 'blue' ammonia clean energy transition. From a risk-management perspective, CF is virtually unmatched in the current market environment. With a deeply defensive beta of 0.399, the stock operates independently of macroeconomic volatility, offering portfolio stabilization. The balance sheet is a fortress with a 4.86 current ratio, and the dividend—yielding roughly 2% with a miniscule 14.9% payout ratio—is exceptionally safe. Combined with aggressive institutional accumulation and a cessation of insider selling, the setup heading into the November 4, 2026 earnings call is highly asymmetric. Investors are presented with a low-risk, cash-rich fortress that possesses significant upside potential. Rating 86/100
What this score has been worth
ClaritX scores CF 86 out of 100, ranking it #12 among stock in the live ClaritX ranking (snapshot 2026-10-21).
Every ClaritX analysis is scored first and judged only on what the stock did afterwards. Across the 202 analyses that scored in the 85-89 band, the average forward return was +2.6% with a 60% win rate, -2.5pp against the S&P 500. That is a measured tendency across many names, not a forecast for CF — roughly 40% of stocks in this band still lost money.
The full band-by-band table, including the bands that lost, is on the AI Rank Report; the live strategy arms behind it are on the AI Track Record, losses published.