The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Stock Analysis
Latest ClaritX AI analysis ·
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a leading global investment firm that employs both direct investment and fund-of-fund strategies. Its direct investment expertise is extensive, encompassing management-led leveraged buyouts, privatizations, and divestitures, as well as strategic minority equity investments. The firm also allocates capital to structured credit opportunities, global distressed and corporate situations, and small-to-middle market enterprises. Its venture and growth capital activities span the full spectrum, from seed/startup and early-stage funding to emerging growth, turnaround situations, mid-venture, late-venture, and Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPES). Carlyle structures i
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $39.82 |
| Market cap | $14.3B |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Industry | Asset Management |
| ClaritX AI score | 11/100 |
| Price/Book | 1.98 |
| Dividend yield | 3.52% |
| Beta | 1.83 |
AI verdict
The investment thesis for The Carlyle Group (CG) remains an intensely toxic proposition, permanently compromised by catastrophic core cash burn, excessive leverage, and egregious insider capitulation. Fundamentally, the enterprise is bleeding operating liquidity, evidenced by a trailing Free Cash Flow of -$5.58 per share and an alarming 1.976 Debt-to-Equity ratio. These failing metrics expose a deeply compromised business model that relies on unsustainable debt and lumpy asset sales to fund a 104.09% dividend payout ratio. Confidence is entirely shattered by co-founder David Rubenstein dumping 400,000 shares for $17.09 million near the lows, while management simultaneously pumps retail-facing PR via ETF launches and M&A rumors. Technically, the asset is suffering a historic collapse, currently trading at $39.82. This represents a devastating ~40.8% drawdown from its 52-week high of $67.30. A stock plunging from its highs under immense fundamental stress presents a totally different, infinitely more dangerous risk profile than a healthy pullback in a bull market. With an exceptionally high beta of 1.827, the stock acts as a massive downside multiplier during risk-off environments. The moving averages remain locked in a death cross, and the RSI of 35.38 signals continued algorithmic selling. Given the relentless distribution and fundamentally broken cash generation, CG remains an uninvestable falling knife. Rating 11/100
What this score has been worth
ClaritX scores CG 11 out of 100 (snapshot 2026-10-05).
Every ClaritX analysis is scored first and judged only on what the stock did afterwards. Across the 117 analyses that scored in the 0-49 band, the average forward return was -4.2% with a 32% win rate, -9.0pp against the S&P 500. That is a measured tendency across many names, not a forecast for CG — roughly 68% of stocks in this band still lost money.
The full band-by-band table, including the bands that lost, is on the AI Rank Report; the live strategy arms behind it are on the AI Track Record, losses published.